There was plenty of good baseball this week. Elite pitching performances. One-run contests. Stars getting huge hits in huge moments.

Thursday evening’s Recreation 3 — New York Mets 4, Milwaukee Brewers 2 — was a real postseason epic. Again-to-back Brewers homers within the seventh inning. Pete Alonso going deep within the ninth to maintain his Mets profession going somewhat longer. Then Francisco Lindor sprinting for a double play to finish it.

October is all about winner-take-all, and the Wild Card spherical had just one sequence that went the gap. It didn’t disappoint. The opposite three sequence have been sweeps. Which brings us to our first takeaway from the wild-card spherical…

Recreation 1 is every part

Wild-card sweeps have been the norm underneath this playoff format.

In the course of the period of the one-off Wild Card Recreation — which ran from 2012 to 2019 and returned in 2021 — many rued the brutal unfairness of a superb season washed away in 9 innings. Wouldn’t a three-game sequence be a greater resolution than a winner-take-all recreation?

Up to now, the reply is … probably not. For the reason that league moved to the three-game Wild Card Collection in 2022, the winner of Recreation 1 has gained all 12 sequence. Solely two sequence have even gone to Recreation 3. That’s an 83 p.c sweep price.

If we embrace the 2020 postseason — following the pandemic-shortened season, MLB expanded the playoff discipline and staged eight three-game wild-card sequence — solely twice in 20 tries has the Recreation 1 loser come again to win the sequence (A’s and Padres in 2020). Sixteen have been sweeps.

That is nonetheless a small pattern of sequence, but it surely has taken some air out of the balloon. The league would like to have every Wild Card sequence go three video games. As an alternative, virtually each sequence has been determined in Recreation 1.

And if that’s the case, you’d higher have a Recreation 1 ace.

Respect the Crown (and the chaos)

The Detroit Tigers had a profitable components for the Wild Card Collection: a Triple Crown winner in Recreation 1, and what supervisor A.J. Hinch known as “pitching chaos” in Recreation 2. Let the ace set the stage, and let everybody else shut the curtain.

Whether or not it was Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, Michael King for the Padres or Cole Ragans for the Royals, three of the 4 groups that obtained ace-caliber performances within the wild-card opener wound up sweeping. After Skubal tossed six shutout innings in opposition to Houston in Recreation 1, the Tigers cycled by means of seven relievers in Recreation 2. King’s 12-strikeout gem in Recreation 1 left the Braves reeling and the Padres bullpen contemporary for Joe Musgrove’s injury-shortened begin in Recreation 2. It was an analogous story for the Royals, whose bullpen was as much as the duty after Seth Lugo was pulled within the fifth inning of Recreation 2 in Baltimore.

Corbin Burnes additionally delivered an ace efficiency in Recreation 1, permitting one run over eight innings in his last begin earlier than free company, however Bobby Witt Jr. drove within the recreation’s solely run. The O’s managed just one run within the sweep.

Chris Sale, the NL Triple Crown winner, didn’t even make the Braves wild-card roster. With Sale affected by again spasms, the Braves had AJ Smith-Shawver to start out Recreation 1. He lasted solely 4 outs. The Braves by no means had an opportunity. The Houston Astros additionally fell behind early when ace Framber Valdez continued final 12 months’s postseason woes. Houston was bounced in two video games. Probably the most dominant begins within the Brewers-Mets sequence got here not from aces however the Recreation 3 starters, José Quintana and Tobias Myers.

Tarik Skubal offers in opposition to the Astros. (Kevin M. Cox /. Related Press)

Residence-field blues

After we wrote about each contender’s down-the-stretch schedule, we spent plenty of phrases on the jockeying for byes and home-field benefit within the Wild Card Collection. The previous? Critically necessary. (Simply ask the 91-win Orioles and the 93-win Brewers.) The latter? Effectively, how a lot does dwelling discipline matter on this spherical?

The house crew has gained solely 9 of 20 three-game Wild Card Collection since 2020.

Eradicating 2020 from the equation, as a result of ballparks have been empty and the playoff discipline was watered down, the house crew has fared even worse within the Wild Card Collection, dropping eight of 12 sequence.

There’s no logical cause for this to be true. No crew would select to play on the highway fairly than at dwelling. However maybe dwelling discipline issues far much less in a three-game sequence than different elements: like an ace.

That doubleheader made a large number 

The Braves pitching employees had been in bother since Spencer Strider’s elbow began barking again in spring coaching, but it surely was fully completed when Hurricane Helene compelled a Monday make-up doubleheader, throughout which Sale was added to the prolonged record of injured Braves.

Smith-Shawver beginning Recreation 1 with neither Austin Riley nor Ronald Acuña Jr. within the lineup? That wasn’t the Braves crew anybody was anticipating again in March. However by the point they have been swept, Atlanta was in tatters. The Braves emptied the bullpen to separate the doubleheader in opposition to the Mets, deployed a spot starter for the primary recreation of the playoffs after which needed to cowl for Max Fried’s two-inning begin within the second recreation.

They have been gassed.

The opposite half of that season-ending doubleheader was the Mets. Luis Severino pitched effectively sufficient in Recreation 1 to provide them a combating probability within the Wild Card Collection, sticking round for six innings regardless of plenty of site visitors early. The cracks began exhibiting in Recreation 3. After Quintana turned in six shutout innings, Buttó blew the stalemate and, impulsively, nearer Edwin Díaz was placing out a hearth within the seventh inning. Even totally rested, the Mets bullpen didn’t possess a top-tier bullpen. Exhausted, they’re extra prone to break down. It was David Peterson — a starter — who put the Brewers away by saving Recreation 3.

The Central is useless (Lengthy stay the Central)

Just a few AL execs have been chatting earlier this 12 months about how MLB balancing its schedule was going to assist highly effective divisions (just like the AL East) and damage weaker divisions (just like the AL Central). That was the thought, anyway.

However the AL Central has three of the ultimate 4 groups within the American League (the Royals, Tigers and Guardians) whereas the East has solely the Yankees. The Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays missed the event, and the Orioles are already headed dwelling.

Final season, the AL Central had just one crew with a profitable file whereas the AL East had 4.

The NL Central was principally a disappointment this season. The Brewers have been their solely hope to make postseason noise, however they’ve now misplaced their previous six playoff sequence and gone 2-10 in postseason video games since 2019. It appeared for a short window of time Thursday evening, after Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick went yard, that half the remaining playoff groups can be from the center of the nation. As an alternative, Alonso knocked out the NL Central solely.

Pete Alonso after his homer in opposition to the Brewers. (Aaron Gash / MLB Pictures through Getty Pictures)

Momentum issues

There’s a pure intuition to imagine groups that come screaming into the playoff image late within the season will probably be discovered as soon as the playoffs start. Their flaws will probably be uncovered. They have been pretenders, in spite of everything.

Then alongside come the Tigers and Mets. The Tigers’ playoff odds have been 0.2 p.c on Aug. 11, the Mets’ 13.1 p.c on Aug. 28. Neither had entered the season as something greater than a midfield crew. They have been roughly .500 groups within the first half. After which, outrageous issues occurred. The Tigers traded their No. 2 starter and some different vets, and couldn’t cease profitable. The Mets fiddled with the knobs on their pitching employees, discovered one thing offensively and made miracles occur in Recreation 161.

On this spherical, neither was uncovered. The Tigers saved rolling. Their ace was higher than the opposite guys’ ace, and their lineup supplied well timed hits. The Mets’ win wasn’t a fluke. They pitched effectively, brought on havoc and rallied when it mattered in opposition to top-of-the-line pitching staffs — and greatest closers — in baseball.

We lump the Tigers and Mets collectively, partially, as a result of we had them final in our postseason pitching core ranking. Not as a result of we thought they have been trash, however as a result of some crew needed to be final, and since it appeared that in some unspecified time in the future the second-half smoke and mirrors would cease working. Not so. Two previous sayings are true for these two groups:

The entire is larger than the sum of its components.

And nobody desires to see these guys in October.

5 groups gained not less than 16 video games in September. Three — the Tigers, Padres and Mets — gained a Wild Card Collection. A fourth, the Los Angeles Dodgers, earned a first-round bye. The one wild-card crew that didn’t have a profitable second-half file was the Orioles, who went 33-33 and have been knocked out in two video games — maybe not excellent news for the NL favourite Philadelphia Phillies, who have been additionally 33-33 after the break.

You possibly can’t predict ball

Some aces have been aces, and a few stars have been stars — you probably did your households proud, Alonso, Witt and Fernando Tatis Jr. — however within the postseason, not all heroes put on All-Star and Silver Slugger capes. Some are simply dudes who present up once they’re wanted most.

The high-profile Padres hit three dwelling runs of their sequence, and two of them got here from No. 9 hitter Kyle Higashioka. The Brewers’ Recreation 2 comeback began with Rookie of the Yr candidate Jackson Chourio, but it surely was Garrett Mitchell who hit the game-winning homer. Skubal lived as much as his billing for the Tigers, but it surely was swingman Beau Brieske who closed Recreation 1 and pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings in Recreation 2. Which second baseman led the Wild Card spherical in hits and doubles? Not Jose Altuve. It was Brewers speedster Brice Turang.

A number of the greatest swings within the Wild Card Collection have been from Andy Ibañez, Jesse Winker and Frelick. A number of the most pivotal punchouts have been thrown by Will Vest, Nick Mears and Sam Long.

October is when even essentially the most nameless huge leaguer can change into a family identify.

(High images of Kyle Higashioka, left, and Will Vest and Jake Rogers, proper: Orlando Ramirez, Alex Stiltz / Getty Pictures)