DETROIT – U.S. auto gross sales by way of the primary half of the yr are anticipated to be up by 2.9% in comparison with a yr in the past, however there are issues that the auto business could not be capable to proceed the momentum over the last six months of the yr.

Automobile stock ranges are rising, incentives are rising and there is rising uncertainty in the course of the second half of the yr surrounding the economic system, rates of interest and U.S. presidential election, in line with Cox Automotive.

The auto knowledge and analysis agency expects gross sales development to gradual in the course of the second half of the yr to finish 2024 at 15.7 million items, roughly a 1.3% enhance in comparison with 2023. And, unlike in recent years, development is coming from industrial gross sales in comparison with extra worthwhile gross sales to shoppers.

“Total, we’re anticipating some weak spot within the coming few months,” stated Cox chief economist Jonathan Smoke throughout a mid-year overview briefing Tuesday. “We mainly are making some assumptions that we won’t fairly maintain the tempo that we have been seeing. However we’re not anticipating a collapse both.”

They seem to be a headwind for automakers, lots of which posted report income as a result of excessive demand and low availability of recent autos in the course of the international well being disaster. Wall Avenue has been predicting vehicle pricing and revenue challenges for many automakers in comparison with the report or near-record ranges of years previous.

“There’s lots of uncertainty that lies forward, and it might make latest gross sales successes laborious to construct upon,” Charlie Chesbrough, Cox’s senior economist, stated in the course of the briefing. “We’re involved that the second half of the yr can not keep the expansion we have seen thus far.”

Rental, industrial and leasing are displaying indicators of double-digit development, whereas Cox expects retail share of the general business to be down 9 share factors from 2021 to roughly 79%.

The gross sales “winners” by way of the primary half of this yr are anticipated to be General Motors, Toyota Motor and Honda Motor, in line with Cox.

Chesbrough stated if Toyota can proceed its development, it might as soon as once more problem GM to rank because the top-selling automaker within the U.S. The Japanese automaker topped all different automakers for the primary time ever in 2021.

Underperformers included Tesla, with gross sales estimated to be down 14.3%, and Stellantis, which is forecast to be down by 16.5% by way of June. Honda beat Stellantis in U.S. gross sales in the course of the first half of the yr, pushing the Chrysler and Jeep mum or dad to No. 6 in gross sales, down from its latest No. 4 rank.

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares earlier this month stated the corporate is correcting what he described as “arrogant” mistakes by himself and the corporate within the automaker’s U.S. operations that led to gross sales declines, bloated inventories and investor issues.

“Greater provide means we formally bid farewell to the vendor’s market that has outlined the final 4 years … which suggests additional deterioration in new automobile grosses and vendor profitability,” Smoke stated.