Coincidents are uncommon in diplomacy. It could be important to maintain a notice of that as the problem of the killing of Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar blows up between India and Canada. The timing of the allegations, every time, from Canada and the escalation of the row regardless of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s home political troubles point out that the actions could have been rigorously thought by relatively than being only a diversionary tactic, which it initially gave the impression to be. This is why.

America Has Canada’s Again

Within the newest spherical of allegations, Canadian international minister Melanie Joly mentioned in regards to the Nijjar killing investigation that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) “gathered info that established linkages between the investigation and brokers of the Authorities of India”. It was this message that the Deputy Commissioner of Federal Policing, Mark Flynn, wished to speak to his Indian counterpart final week. When the makes an attempt had been unsuccessful, he met with officers of the Indian authorities, together with Nationwide Safety and Intelligence Advisor (NSIA) Nathalie Drouin and Deputy Minister of Overseas Affairs David Morrison over the weekend.

The Canadian authorities’s resolution to expel the diplomats has been primarily based on the RCMP’s findings and was taken inside a day of the acknowledged assembly, the place the NSIA was current alongside together with his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval, as reported by a US publication. What explains the hurry to current the proof to India after which instantly act on it with expulsion? May this have been prompted as a result of the Indian enquiry committee trying into related allegations by the US was visiting Washington DC only a day after Canada’s motion?

Now, flip the clock again to September final 12 months when Justin Trudeau advised the Canadian Parliament that Indian authorities brokers presumably had a hand within the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar outdoors a gurudwara in Surrey, British Columbia. Many had been bowled over by the general public announcement by Trudeau on a delicate concern.

That Trudeau could have wished to create a distraction from home points solely partly defined his motion. What appeared extra possible was the truth that he was presumably conscious of the parallel investigations underway within the US. That Canada was sounded out by the US on the problem is now fairly evident, regardless that what we all know now could be solely {that a} 5 Eyes nation alerted Ottawa. Inside 10 days of Trudeau’s Parliament assertion, the US launched particulars of their investigations in opposition to Indian nationwide Nikhil Gupta and an Indian authorities worker known as ‘CC1’ by the US Division of Justice, who plotted the foiled assassination bid on Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, one other Khalistani extremist who lives in New York.

The unfolding of the occasions in September 2023 and at the moment ought to give a transparent sense that there’s a lot larger coordination on this matter between the US and Canada than what meets the attention. Having America’s backing on the problem can clarify the steps that Canada has taken and those it has indicated when Joly didn’t rule out sanctions by saying that “every part is on the desk”.

Overseas Interference

India has repeatedly raised the problem of Khalistan with Canada as a menace to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. With the killing of Nijjar, Canada is utilizing the argument of sovereignty. The difficulty can be being conflated with the overarching concern over international interference.  Consequently, the matter has gained traction not simply with the general public but additionally politically from an in any other case adversarial opposition, the Conservatives. Pierre Poilievre mentioned, “Any international interference from any nation, together with India, is unacceptable and have to be stopped.”

A Parliamentary Committee report recognized India because the second most vital international menace to Canada following China. The Nationwide Safety and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians report mentioned, “Along with interference in opposition to Canadian democratic processes and establishments by the PRC, India and to a restricted extent Pakistan, different nations, notably Iran engaged in episodic international interference directed in the direction of suppressing dissidents and critics in Canada. Referred to as ‘transnational repression,’ these actions symbolize some of the egregious types of international interference.”

The difficulty of international interference might be a prickly matter for any sovereign nation however extra so for Canada and the US within the latest previous with their issues about China and Russia. Therefore, this concern is one which generates worry or fear, and thus has the ability to mobilise each public and political opinion round India.

One other 5 Eyes nation, Australia, had earlier reported a few “nest of spies” that was found by the Australian Safety Intelligence Group in 2020. Australian information channel ABC reported that “Nationwide safety and authorities figures have now confirmed to the ABC that India’s international intelligence service was answerable for the ‘nest of spies’, and ‘a quantity’ of Indian officers had been later faraway from Australia by the Morrison authorities.”

With these two broad elements – US backing and international interference – carefully related to the Nijjar killing, the Justin Trudeau authorities is making drastic and dramatic strikes, however maybe with the information that any backfire shall be cushioned.

(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has extensively reported on public coverage and international affairs.)

Disclaimer: These are the private opinions of the writer