The ten-second 100-meter sprint. The four-minute mile. The 2-hour marathon. In baseball, is the 110 mph fastball the subsequent large quantity to fall? What truly is the higher restrict in relation to skilled pitchers throwing their quickest pitches?

There’s some debate about what the quickest fastball up to now has been. Within the documentary Fastball, filmmakers checked out a couple of key moments from the previous. Bob Feller threw a ball quicker than an 86 mph motorbike. Nolan Ryan was clocked at 100.8 mph by a radar gun in 1974. Should you convert Ryan’s quantity to the out-of-the-hand methodology used to measure pitch velocity right now, you get 108 mph. For some, that counts because the quickest pitch on document.

We’ve been monitoring major-league pitchers with the identical high quality of know-how since 2007, although, and no one has thrown more durable than Aroldis Chapman and his 105.8 mph fastball in 2010. So Ryan’s 108 could be a big departure from 15 years of monitoring pitches — and, for what it’s value, it’s a big departure from radar gun readings over the remainder of his sport that day, in addition to the remainder of his profession, which normally topped out round 96 and 97 mph.

Since these different pitchers had been clocked utilizing outdated know-how, it’s in all probability fairest to name 105.8 mph the trendy document in fastball velocity. In order that’s how briskly a human has thrown the ball. However what’s the quickest a human being might throw the ball?

“Whenever you construct up a easy physics mannequin that’s primarily a sequence of collisions between physique components, you get a max fastball velocity of about 125 mph,” mentioned Jimmy Buffi, who has a PhD in biomedical engineering. Buffi is a former Los Angeles Dodgers analyst and is a co-founder of Reboot Movement, a participant improvement consultancy agency.

“We’ll want to make use of new strategies,” mentioned Kyle Boddy, present Boston Red Sox guide and the founding father of Driveline Baseball, a participant improvement lab and consultancy firm. “If there’s a approach to proceed on, it received’t be with present strategies. Utilizing the very best mechanics from elite pitchers, piecemeal, is unlikely to be the best way we are able to create the 110 mph pitcher.”

Others thought concerning the potential for damage on this pursuit – pitching injuries have been up with velocity, in any case. Perhaps we’re already on the restrict?

“I don’t suppose persons are going to have the ability to throw that onerous,” mentioned the Dodgers’ Bobby Miller, the league’s third-hardest throwing starter, about numbers like 110 and 125 mph. “You attain a sure level the place your arm will in all probability break.”

That’s three totally different solutions. Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at every.

The case for 125 mph

There’s an idea in pitching known as the “kinetic chain,” which describes the switch of pressure from the bottom, and the bigger muscle groups within the legs, up by way of the core and out to the top of the arm. Should you work in a purely theoretical house, that chain is principally a bunch of interactions that try to preserve the momentum created down low because it travels out to the arm. Buffi’s job at ReBoot is to assist make these transfers as environment friendly as potential. He created a physics mannequin to explain them for the needs of answering this query.

“To give you this toy instance,” he mentioned, “I considered the pitching movement as primarily a sequence of vitality transfers between two lots, much like a big ball colliding with a smaller ball. The legs are the bigger mass, they usually switch vitality to the torso, which transfers vitality to the higher arm, then to the forearm, then to the hand, then to the ball.”


A pitcher’s kinetic chain consists of six phases. (Graphic: Drew Jordan / The Athletic; picture of Paul Skenes: Rick Osentoski / Getty Photos)

The relative sizes of every of these muscle teams govern the quantity of vitality that may be transferred in every interplay, simply as it’s within the traditional physics drawback wherein a big ball hits a smaller ball. Within the mannequin that Buffi created, a 200-pound individual placing 500 kilos of pressure into the bottom whereas being 85 % environment friendly in his transfers (an effectivity that’s elite, however inside the vary of chance, in his estimation) would throw 125 mph.

“Although it’s a toy instance, if you put in cheap vitality switch numbers and floor response pressure values, you truly get cheap pitching velocity estimates,” mentioned Buffi.

One among right now’s hardest throwers, Oakland nearer Mason Miller, agrees that the scale of the participant and pressure into the bottom was a standard denominator if you have a look at the toughest throwers.

“Bodily, I’m 230 kilos, possibly 240 at my largest. Chapman is like 250 kilos,” mentioned Miller. He has thrown the fourth-fastest pitch this season at 103.7 mph, which trails solely a pair Chapman fastballs (one at 104) and one from Angels reliever Ben Joyce. “Power manufacturing into the bottom is necessary, we’ve seen that from force plate testing, that’s a very good measure of energy manufacturing.”

However there are some flaws on this case. Floor pressure reactions north of those Buffi used have been recorded already by athletes at Driveline Baseball, they usually didn’t throw 125 mph. It’s approach out in entrance of what’s been noticed, as nicely.

Stated Miller: “125 looks as if it’s approach out of our present existence.”

“Oh my goodness, 125, that’s loopy,” mentioned Twins’ nearer Jhoan Duran, who has topped out at 104.8 mph.

The case for 110 mph

The examine of biomechanics, or the mechanical legal guidelines referring to the motion and construction of dwelling organisms, has unlocked velocity for lots of right now’s arduous throwers. The common four-seam main league fastball, measured by the identical know-how and methodology, has elevated in velocity each season since Major League Baseball began monitoring it, all the best way from 91.1 mph in 2007 to 94.1 now.

Sam Hellinger of Driveline Baseball shared an instance of how this understanding of the physique has helped gamers prepare to get extra velocity. Justin Thorsteinson, a former Division I pitcher hoping to signal on with a company, got here to them throwing 87.7 mph in June and by August was throwing 91.5 mph, and his altering how his shoulder moved was key. Scapular retraction — in rudimentary phrases, how far again the throwing shoulder reaches earlier than coming ahead — has been linked to velocity by biomechanics research as a result of it creates an enormous separation between the hip and the shoulder. As that separation snaps again like a rubber band, torso velocity is accelerated, which is then transferred to the arm. That was an enormous focus for Thorsteinson.

“Primarily based on Justin’s bio report, we decided that his most evident want mechanically was his arm motion, particularly his max shoulder exterior rotation and scapular retraction,” mentioned Hellinger.

After some work with weighted balls and particular drills, Thorsteinson improved his scores within the particular biomechanics that they had been focusing on, as you possibly can see additionally from this image, which exhibits how a lot he improved his shoulder retraction.

Justin Thorsteinson's before and after shoulder action.


Earlier than (left) and after (proper) for Justin Thorsteinson, displaying extra shoulder retraction after the drills. (Driveline Baseball)

So might a 250-pound monster of an athlete refine every of his actions to the very best of present data and bust previous the 106 mph ceiling in the direction of the 110 mph that Boddy thought potential?

“Should you’re getting greater than Chapman, who throws 105, when you get any greater, you lose coordination,” mentioned Dodgers starter Walker Buehler. “He’s as large and as sturdy as you could be, and his supply is all about velo.”

Boddy can also be undecided {that a} large dude, plus the very best piecemeal mechanics of our time, was the best approach ahead.

“We’ll want to make use of new strategies, like simulation of human motion with hundreds of thousands of artificial knowledge factors utilizing machine studying and synthetic intelligence to discover all the latent house of potential mechanical outputs and muscular contributions to the throwing movement,” mentioned Boddy. “That is one thing Driveline Baseball has been engaged on for years and is quickly turning into a precedence venture — primarily for sturdiness enhancements over efficiency positive aspects, although we anticipate breakthroughs in each realms over the approaching years from our Sports activities Science and Analysis groups.”

In different phrases, as an alternative of taking our legendary 250-pound flamethrower after which giving him what trendy analysis thinks is the very best mechanics within the legs, the torso, the shoulder, and the arms, Boddy is hoping that AI might assist us consider new methods these physique components might transfer in live performance with one another, as a way to establish even higher potential mechanics.

May AI do that? Given the speedy rise of that know-how, it appears believable that we might see positive aspects from re-evaluating present processes, even ones that contain the motion of our our bodies.

The case for 106 mph

Let’s flip over to a distinct sport for a second. Over within the 100-meter sprint, we have now data going again to the Seventies. If we observe the very best occasions by yr, it seems to be like we’re hitting a little bit of an asymptote — as an alternative of huge positive aspects like we noticed within the Nineteen Eighties and ’90s, we’re combating over smaller increments of change.

Should you altitude-adjust these numbers — working increased up can shave some milliseconds, as we noticed with a few record-breaking runs earlier this century — we’re zeroing in round 9.7 to 9.8 seconds as maybe the quickest a runner can handle in a impartial setting. That is seen by some to point out that trendy coaching, diet, and tools have pushed the physique so far as it will probably go. There are related graphs in different working sports activities that counsel the identical.

The utmost pitch velocity appears to be following a similar trajectory in baseball. Chapman threw 105.8 mph in 2010 and since then, the common finest fastball has been 104, with a peak of 105.7 (Chapman once more in 2016) and a nadir of 102.2 (in 2020, in fact). One of the best non-Chapman fastball is round 104 mph in any given season.

There are some variations between pitching and working, although. Right here’s the place Glenn Fleisig, the director of biomechanics analysis on the American Sports activities Medication Institute, is available in.

“Fifteen years in the past I used to be quoted as saying that I didn’t suppose prime velocity or the ceiling going up, however I foresee it getting fairly crowded on the ceiling,” mentioned Fleisig. “It wasn’t a fortunate guess that I pulled out of my butt.”

“When others speak concerning the ceiling, they speak about physics and statistics. Perhaps by the legal guidelines of physics, possibly individuals might throw quicker. Perhaps the best quantity might preserve going up prefer it (did) for runners, as a result of the coaching can enhance, the mechanics and biomechanics can enhance, the diet and dietary supplements can enhance,” he continued.

“The distinction right here is that we’re pushing this little ulnar collateral ligament to its restrict. We’re strengthening our muscle groups and bettering our mechanics and diet, however based mostly on how the physique is constructed, the ligaments and tendons don’t enhance proportionally to the opposite components of the physique and the method.”

When that ligament tears, the pitcher wants Tommy John surgical procedure to get again on the mound, and people surgical procedures are extra frequent than ever. How a lot stress that ligament can deal with may be up for debate.

“Nobody actually is aware of how a lot stress a UCL can actually take, due to an issue I name cadavers and robots,” mentioned Randy Sullivan of the Florida Baseball ARMory on a recent podcast. “We decided how a lot stress a UCL can take by way of a cadaver setting the place we discovered that it tears at 35 newton-meters of torque, after which we used movement seize to find out that it will probably tolerate on a single pitch, it has to simply accept 70-75 nM of stress.  We bought the underside quantity from an individual who wasn’t alive; dwelling tissue wouldn’t react the identical approach. And we bought the highest quantity from a mannequin, a legendary robotic.”

Fleisig, who authored the examine that checked out how a lot stress the UCL might deal with in cadavers, noticed that second quantity in a barely totally different gentle.


Throwing high-velocity pitches places an excessive amount of stress on a pitcher’s UCL. (Drew Jordan / The Athletic)

“That 70-75 nM dynamic stress from biomechanics evaluation is on the total elbow, and the UCL does a couple of third of that resistance, your bones and tendons assist with that resistance,” he factors out. Taking a 3rd of 75 nM leaves the present stress on the elbow inside the 35 nM most we see in cadavers.

The game may be telling us one thing with the spike in arm accidents. All these torn ligaments, that are increasingly tied to top-end velocity by the very best accessible analysis, appear to counsel that we’re working up on the bodily limits of that little tendon. Perhaps 106 is all that we are able to do.

“I’ve considered it earlier than,” mentioned Joyce, the Los Angeles Angels pitcher who has thrown the toughest this yr and likewise had a fastball tracked at 105.5 mph in school. “I’d suppose somebody will hit 106.0, however I don’t know if there’s far more than that.”

The place can we go from right here?

The work to enhance the ceiling will go on, it doesn’t matter what accidents say, due to the reward system in place for pitchers who can throw arduous. The best draft picks, the largest free-agent contracts — these go to the quickest fastballs, and that’s not prone to change within the brief time period.

Joyce has an an identical twin who tops out at 98 mph, with related mechanics and an identical genes. So what separated Ben from his brother Zach?

“I didn’t do something particular,” mentioned the harder-throwing Joyce. “I simply at all times needed to throw arduous, so I attempted to throw more durable daily, stored throwing more durable and more durable, and it will definitely labored out.”

Joyce identified that he hadn’t actually optimized his mechanics or completed something particular in that regard. He’s simply throwing 103 and 104 on pure willpower. He’s additionally just a little smaller than Miller and Chapman. Perhaps the subsequent child is 50 kilos heavier, has that very same iron will, finally ends up as a reliever the place he can max out on fewer pitches, and likewise optimizes his biomechanics. That state of affairs appears prone to push the top-end velocity some … however how a lot increased if that little ligament is taking all it will probably deal with already?

If that mixture of inputs solely pushes most velocity ahead a tick or two, it’d behoove younger pitchers to think about different targets as they arrive up the ranks. In different phrases, if we get to a degree the place everybody throws more durable than 94 mph within the large leagues, however no one actually throws more durable than 106, possibly one of the simplest ways to stay out sooner or later shall be to display a pitch combine with various velocities and actions, with good command. Perhaps the success of softer-throwing pitchers such because the Royals’ Seth Lugo, who throws eight totally different pitches from two totally different arm slots, and the Phillies’ Ranger Suárez, who retains the ball on the bottom with nice command, can present new function fashions for younger pitchers.

Because the accidents mount within the seek for velocity, chasing a most quantity which may not even be potential might not be the very best plan for a younger arm all in favour of making essentially the most out of his expertise.

— The Athletic’s Sam Blum contributed to this story.

(High picture: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photograph of Paul Skenes: Justin Okay. Aller / Getty Photos)





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