This winter’s free agent class appears a bit higher than last year’s dismal group, highlighted by one all-time famous person, after which there’s a good tier of potential impression gamers on each side of the ball if only a few different gamers you may moderately name “stars.”

That is my rating of the highest 50 free brokers available on the market, given what we all know now and what appears almost certainly to occur within the subsequent week or so. I ranked them in line with how a lot I would commit to every of them if I have been a GM with a necessity for that participant and no explicit payroll constraints — not essentially what they’ll get, however what I feel they’re more likely to be value, contemplating their seemingly future manufacturing, enjoying time, and development or regression over the lifetime of such a contract. Your mileage, as all the time, could range.

As a result of I’m penning this earlier than the World Collection ends, this additionally represents my finest guesses on some membership and participant choices the place neither aspect has indicated their intentions. For instance, I’m assuming the groups concerned will train their choices on Marcell Ozuna and Brandon Lowe, and that Cody Bellinger, Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Lucas Giolito won’t decide out of their current offers.

(Notice: Scouting grades are on a 20-80 scale.)

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1. Juan Soto, OF

If plate self-discipline was an individual, it could be Juan Soto. He doesn’t chase dangerous pitches; dangerous pitches chase him. When MLB lastly institutes a problem system for balls and strikes, as a substitute of utilizing an automatic system, the plan is to simply ask Soto. So after all he’s the perfect free agent on this class, and a staff goes to must again up the proverbial truck for his providers — particularly since he’s going to begin his new contract at simply 26 years previous.

Soto was the third-best hitter in baseball this previous yr by wRC+, and the one two hitters who have been higher are going to win their league’s respective MVP awards. He’s led the league in walks 3 times, ending second this yr to his teammate Aaron Judge, and has walked greater than he’s struck out in each season since 2019. He has by no means had an OBP under .400 in seven major-league seasons.

He’s coming off a profession excessive in homers, and whereas it’s straightforward to simply ascribe that to enjoying half his video games with the right-field fence about 20 ft from residence plate (my estimate could also be off, I blame the metric system), nearly all of his homers have been “no-doubters” by distance. For many free brokers coming off a profession yr, it could be smart to imagine some regression is coming; in Soto’s case, it might simply be him coming into his offensive peak.

His solely flaw as a participant is that he’s a below-average defender in proper, and whereas his defensive metrics have been higher in 2024, enjoying in a smaller proper area at Yankee Stadium could have had one thing to do with it. He’s going to place up a bunch of 8-WAR seasons within the subsequent 10 years, and, assuming that’s the size of his contract, ought to nonetheless be an above-average offensive participant on the finish of it, even when he would possibly transfer to DH by his mid-30s. I suppose it’s time to retire the Infantile Bambino nickname, although.

2. Willy Adames, SS

Adames has been an above-average common for his whole major-league profession. Outdoors of 2020, his manufacturing has by no means been value lower than 3.0 bWAR/3.1 fWAR, though how he’s gotten to that worth has diversified. His worst offensive yr, in 2023, was his strongest defensive one. (He did miss about two weeks that season after he was hit within the head by a foul ball, though his offensive manufacturing was truly worse earlier than the damage than after.)

He’s a giant Three True Outcomes hitter, with walks, strikeouts and homers accounting for 41 % of his profession PA, and even with excessive strikeout charges, he nonetheless will get on base and hits for sufficient energy to be an above-average common as a shortstop. His defensive metrics have vacillated wildly over his profession, averaging out simply barely above common, however the numbers jumped when he acquired to Milwaukee and I ponder if a few of that’s the results of the Brewers’ positioning, as Adames isn’t significantly quick and doesn’t have a ton of vary, particularly to his left.

He’s among the many youngest free brokers, enjoying at 29 subsequent yr, and will maintain his worth for a number of extra seasons, however when that strikeout charge begins to creep up as he ages, he would possibly go from an above-average common at quick to a utility man in a rush.

3. Corbin Burnes, RHP

Burnes hit a tough stretch in August, after which he and the Orioles tweaked the form of his cutter, permitting him to complete sturdy — he struck out 24 in 19 innings in his final three outings, all in opposition to playoff groups — and enter free company off a sub-3 ERA. Amongst MLB free brokers, he’s the one one with a case to be thought of or valued as a No. 1 starter, even with some decline in his strikeout charge since his two peak years in 2021-22. He additionally has an extended historical past of suppressing hits on balls in play, with a profession .276 determine and no single-season BABIP over .309 since he turned a starter.

His cutter is without doubt one of the finest within the enterprise, rating as the perfect or second-best cutter by Statcast’s run values in every of the final 4 seasons, and he works with 5 pitches, together with a changeup and sinker that play off one another as a result of they’ve very related motion however about 8 mph of separation.

He’s in all probability going to lose some velocity over the course of no matter deal he indicators, however his plus command, slight groundball tendency and reliance on motion and altering speeds all level to somebody who will proceed to have success even when his fastball cools slightly. Perhaps he’s a contender’s ace now, and a No. 2 or a very good No. 3 on the finish of a contract. He ought to get at the least $25 million a yr, in all probability getting 5 years as a result of that’s typical for a high-end starter even with the damage dangers related to pitching.

4. Max Fried, LHP

Fried has been among the finest pitchers in baseball over the past 5 years, rating eleventh in fWAR because the begin of the 2020 season with 15.4, lacking the highest 10 as a result of he’s misplaced a while to blisters over that span quite than on account of poor efficiency. His curveball has all the time been a hammer, someplace between 12/6 and 11/5, with tight rotation and a ton of vertical break, so it’s been his most-used secondary pitch for his whole profession, though he threw seven pitch varieties this previous yr, in line with Statcast.

He threw a “sweeper” extra in 2024, in his case a special slider with a decrease velocity than his conventional one and the next spin charge for extra break alongside each axes, and when he will get it down it’s an actual weapon in opposition to hitters on each side of the plate. As a result of he depends so little on his four-seamer to complete off hitters, he looks like a very good guess to carry worth into his mid-30s, and I feel he’ll get a deal that surprises the typical fan, approaching $30 million a yr and maybe as much as 5 years.

5. Alex Bregman, 3B

Bregman hits free company coming off the worst full season of his profession, and whereas he did enhance his offense within the second half, it was all energy — he had a .316 OBP earlier than the All-Star break and .315 after, which is well the worst he’s posted. Lengthy a improbable fastball hitter, together with in 2023, he collapsed in opposition to them in 2024, taking far more fastballs for strikes and fouling extra off as nicely, as misplaced bat pace meant that he couldn’t activate them like he used to.

He’s 30, younger to have misplaced that a lot bat pace, and maybe the facility surge within the second half is a optimistic signal. He did publish the perfect OAA of his profession within the area at +5, should you’re on the lookout for causes for hope. Bregman is without doubt one of the purest hitters I’ve ever seen, going again to highschool; I don’t wish to consider that is the start of the tip, however the batted-ball information are usually not hopeful.

6. Roki Sasaki, RHP

We’ll see if Sasaki truly will get posted this winter, as he has already requested his employer, the Chiba Lotte Marines, to publish him as soon as earlier than, however they’ve his contractual rights by the 2026 season. Sasaki has ridiculous stuff and the outcomes to go along with it. He’s been as much as 102 mph with some run; his splitter is likely to be an 80, as he deadens the ball and will get very late backside to it; and he has a reasonably sharp slider round 90-92, you recognize, simply to have a 3rd pitch.

It’s a cool supply with a really excessive leg kick after which an ungainly leg swing out entrance, however he’s on-line and on time. It’s not as lengthy a stride because it might be, however I can’t see altering something; if meaning there’s some damage threat right here, you simply reside with it.

He has been damage fairly a bit, lacking a bit of 2024 with “proper arm discomfort” and time in 2023 with an indirect damage. His 2022 workload of 129 innings is his peak, so whereas it’s No. 1 starter stuff, he hasn’t come near the innings we anticipate from an ace or perhaps a No. 2 starter.

If he does get posted, he’s going to be “over-valued” based mostly on what he’s performed to this point. A staff will make a financial funding in him based mostly on upside, as if somebody is shopping for a prospect quite than a longtime big-league ace.

Snell had a late begin to his 2024 season, however when he returned from a stint on the injured listing on July 9, he pitched quite a bit like a man who’d simply received his second Cy Younger Award, throwing 80 innings with 114 strikeouts and 30 walks allowed, together with a 1.23 ERA.

A few of it was fluky, after all, just like the .203 BABIP he allowed in that stretch, however he has plus stuff — a curveball with massive horizontal break that was one of the priceless pitches of its kind in 2024, a fastball with good carry, a changeup with out a lot life however that has nice deception. He walks too many guys, however he misses a ton of bats and his stuff generates a whole lot of weak contact, sufficient that he nonetheless could be an above-average starter even when he’s not successful awards.

8. Jack Flaherty, RHP

The key to Flaherty’s success this yr was the key to his success earlier in his profession — beautiful command. He lived on the backside of the strike zone all yr together with his two breaking pitches, with that tight two-plane curveball the best pitch of its kind final yr on a per-pitch foundation (amongst pitchers who threw at the least 200 curveballs). After a number of years of accidents, he’s been largely wholesome the final two seasons, with 306 whole regular-season innings pitched in that span, and was capable of work round an elevated residence run charge by limiting walks and getting hitters to broaden the zone greater than he has in earlier years.

If wholesome, he’s a robust No. 3 starter who can work deep into video games as a result of he’s environment friendly and misses sufficient bats to outlive some arduous contact.

9. Jurickson Profar, OF

Profar was so dangerous for the Rockies in 2023 that the staff launched him in August, after which his previous pal A.J. Preller, who first signed Profar when the Curaçao native was an newbie in 2009, picked him up for the previous few weeks of the season. The Padres re-signed him in February for $1 million, and the previous No. 1 prospect in baseball responded with a profession yr — a .280/.380/.459 line value 30 batting runs and 4.3 fWAR, held down by his continued poor play in left area. (The man was a shortstop till he damage his shoulder in 2014. I don’t perceive how he’s this persistently dangerous in an outfield nook.)

Profar started hitting the ball more durable than ever in 2024, and he posted the bottom chase charge of his profession. He took his walks, and when pitchers got here into the zone, he took his hacks. He’ll flip 32 in February, and he battled some tendinitis in his knee in 2024, though he performed in 158 video games this yr. He could not attain his 4-win peak once more, however regardless of the one-year nature of the breakout, every little thing he did in 2024 appears sustainable, and he might be a 3-win participant for a number of extra years.

10. Teoscar Hernández, OF

The Dodgers picked up Hernández on a one-year, $23.5 million deal, and acquired the perfect yr of his profession — and doubtless the perfect {that a} participant of his profile can ship. He hit .272/.339/.501 round a 29 % strikeout charge, setting profession highs in walks and homers, and if he hadn’t been so dangerous on protection he would have been near a 5-WAR participant.

He’s all the time been a fan of pitches which are straight and fewer so of pitches which are flexible, though in 2024 he truly had his best-ever outcomes off curveballs (seemingly simply random noise). He did enhance his swing choices, swinging extra at strikes and fewer typically at balls, and slicing down on all swings at breaking balls versus 2023. If that higher method carries ahead, he ought to crank out a few 3-4 win seasons earlier than he hits that decline part.

The Padres and Kim maintain a mutual choice for 2025 at a cut price value of $7 million, however after Kim’s 2024 season ended early on account of shoulder surgical procedure that may hold him out for a bit of subsequent yr, his standing is unclear. He has developed in his 4 years in MLB into an above-average common, displaying substantial enchancment in his strike-zone judgment and swing choices, in order that though he struggles with good fastballs and has below-average energy, he’s capable of get on base at a excessive sufficient clip to be roughly a league-average hitter — and added to his plus protection at quick, that makes him a really priceless participant.

Past simply the misplaced time from the surgical procedure, it was on his throwing shoulder, so there’s all the time the prospect his arm energy is diminished when he returns, maybe sufficient to maneuver him off shortstop — which was the case with Profar many moons in the past, though his shoulder damage was completely different. A wholesome Kim could be in line for an enormous deal, possibly six years and $30 million per yr given the paucity of shortstops available on the market this winter, but when he’s actually going to overlook half of the 2025 season, maybe he ought to signal a make-good deal someplace for a yr to re-enter the market subsequent autumn.

Manaea was simply an oft-injured fill-in who was himself filling in for the Mets’ varied injured starters when the staff instructed he drop his arm slot to provide him extra deception, and as soon as he did — “throwing like Chris Sale,” within the phrases of 1 scout — he turned among the finest starters within the Nationwide League.

Beginning on July 30, across the time he first started dropping his slot, he made 12 begins, throwing 75 2/3 innings with 83 strikeouts, 18 walks and a 3.05 ERA/3.35 FIP, holding opposing batters to a .230 OBP. What’s most attention-grabbing is that he didn’t lose effectiveness in opposition to right-handers, even after they might get an extended have a look at his arm and most of his pitches could be transferring in in direction of their bat path. He additionally deprecated his previous slider in favor of a sweeping one which trades velocity for extra break in each instructions; the brand new pitch missed extra bats and resulted in much less arduous contact.

Manaea had some important accidents early in his profession, together with shoulder surgical procedure in 2018, however he hasn’t hit the injured listing with any arm-related points since 2019, and he’s made 28 or extra begins 3 times within the final 4 seasons.

His state of affairs jogs my memory of Charlie Morton’s 2016-17 offseason, when the 34-year-old Morton had made simply 4 begins earlier than a knee damage ended his season, however he was a totally completely different pitcher in these 4 begins. The Astros guess on the change in stuff, giving him two years and $14 million, and he threw over 300 innings with a 3.36 ERA and generated over 5 WAR.

Manaea will flip 33 in February, so there’s threat together with his age and previous workload, however I feel the modifications are actual and will give him a few further years as an above-average starter.

Wacha, who holds a participant choice value $16 million, simply turned in his third straight yr of stable or higher efficiency as a starter, this time qualifying for the ERA title together with his highest innings whole in eight years (166 2/3), doing all of it with the identical pitch that made him a first-round choose in 2012, an elite changeup. That pitch, with nice deception out of his hand and large tumble because it reaches the plate, ranked third amongst all changeups in MLB in 2024 by Statcast’s Run Values at +17, and it’s at +38 over the past three seasons.

Wacha has by no means actually had a median breaking ball and it hasn’t mattered. The one factor that has held him again has been accidents, however he’s thrown 120 innings or extra within the final 5 non-pandemic years, which lately is sufficient to get you a rotation spot. After a slew of one-year contracts which have seen Wacha pitch for six golf equipment in six years, he actually ought to get a two- or three-year deal as he comes off his finest season to this point.

Peralta was a deserving All-Star in 2021, his finest season, however missed half of 2022 with a shoulder damage and his curveball hasn’t been the identical since, leaving him extra of a four-seamer/changeup man who’s a really stable third or fourth starter. He’s been wholesome and constant the final two seasons, making 30+ begins and throwing 165+ innings in every.

The shortage of a median breaking ball has left him with a reverse platoon break up, as righties have hit him for lots extra energy — unsurprising for somebody who depends closely on a four-seamer. I feel what you see in Peralta over the past two years is what you’ll get, and that’s a $15-20 million a yr pitcher who ought to actually get three to 4 years for his consistency. Milwaukee holds an $8 million choice for 2025 that they’d be nuts to say no.

15. Pete Alonso, 1B

I perceive that Alonso is a fan favourite and could also be beloved within the Mets’ clubhouse, however he’s coming into free company off the 2 worst years of his profession and he’s the kind of participant who ages very poorly. Alonso has hit .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons and struck out slightly below 25 % of the time, whereas his batted-ball information is nearly all trending the unsuitable approach. He simply posted the very best groundball charge of his profession in 2024, whereas his hard-hit charges are all at or close to profession lows, and he has turn into very susceptible to breaking stuff.

He’s additionally a really poor defender at first, which has been the case since he was a prospect, with Statcast crediting (debiting?) him with minus-18 runs on protection over his profession. Sluggish place gamers who’re poor defenders and depend on energy for many of their worth are inclined to age extra poorly than different classes of place gamers, and Alonso is likely to be the ne plus extremely of such gamers, though he’ll solely be 30 subsequent season. He’s a 2-3 win participant as is and is likely to be half that in 5 years, so whereas he’d be nice to signal on a short-term deal, even for $20-25 million, I feel any longer deal goes to finish up paying him for previous manufacturing quite than future.

16. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP

The Astros traded for Kikuchi on the deadline this yr, and he gave them the perfect stretch of his MLB profession, with a 2.70 ERA in 10 begins. He tends to get excessive marks from analysts for his stuff, however decrease marks from hitters, as he’s given up a whole lot of arduous contact in his MLB profession, on his fastball and each breaking pitches. Neither the slider nor curve has excessive spin or a lot break, and he has to outlive by pounding the zone and relying a bit on his protection.

In 2024, he posted the bottom stroll charge of his profession, and if that holds, he ought to have a number of extra years as a fifth starter forward of him, particularly given his sturdiness since he came to visit from NPB earlier than the 2018 season.

17. Anthony Santander, OF

Santander picked a very good time to have his finest yr, with profession bests in homers (44), walks (58), slugging (.506), and wRC+ (129). It additionally got here with a career-worst BABIP of .225, which was in actual fact the bottom of any qualifying hitter in MLB final yr. He swings arduous and is attempting to elevate every little thing within the air, which is nice when he squares it up however ends in a whole lot of pop-ups as nicely — in all probability not sufficient to elucidate the horrendous BABIP, however sufficient to assume his profession charge of .263 might be nearer to his true expertise stage.

He’s a below-average defender in a nook, at minus-5 whole RAA within the final two years, however the energy is sufficient to make him a 2.5-3 win participant even when he doesn’t repeat the 44-homer efficiency. He’s among the finest choices within the Rule 5 draft because the rule modifications gutted the expertise pool over a decade in the past, at 11.1 WAR and counting by age 30. He ought to get four-year, $20-22 million AAV presents in a weak marketplace for energy hitters.

Martinez’s four-win (referring right here to Wins Above Alternative) marketing campaign in 2024 got here out of nowhere — he truly moved from an important pitcher’s park to one of the hitter-friendly ones, but he lower his home-run charge, and on prime of that posted the bottom stroll charge of his profession. In truth, that stroll charge of three.2 % was the bottom by any pitcher not pitching for the Mariners, with a minimal of 100 innings.

Martinez was dynamite in reduction for the Reds, and extra round league-average when he labored as a starter, with a 3.84 ERA within the latter position throughout 16 begins and 89 innings, nonetheless with a 3.3 % stroll charge. He confirmed an enormous break up between the primary time he confronted a batter (.188/.222/.319 in 2024) and the second (.291/.324/.488) when working as a starter. Earlier than this season, he’d been much less dominant the primary time by the order, making this break up extra pronounced together with his enchancment in that space this yr.

His out-pitch is a changeup, which stays plus, though he has a kitchen sink of weapons at his disposal, and possibly there’s a greater pitching plan on the market for him that may assist him be more practical a second time by the order and make him a stable five-inning starter for the again of a rotation. He presents a very excessive flooring as a superb swingman/reliever, which ought to generate a whole lot of curiosity and a few three-year offers.

Eovaldi made 29 begins final yr and threw 170 innings, the third-best whole of his lengthy profession, which is likely to be a very powerful stat in his 2024 line given his damage historical past (together with two Tommy John surgical procedures). He doesn’t throw fairly as arduous as he did in his peak years however has averaged 95-96 mph persistently for 3 seasons. His splitter stays an out-pitch, with late motion down and to his arm aspect, but he nonetheless throws it for strikes a stunning quantity of the time — solely 32 % of the splitters he threw final yr have been known as balls. (Among the many 10 MLB pitchers who threw essentially the most splitters in 2024, solely Shota Imanaga had a decrease proportion of known as balls.) Eovaldi will flip 35 in February so Father Time stalks him at each flip, however he’d be a robust No. 3 starter candidate for many contenders proper now, and he can in all probability keep moderately efficient even as soon as age begins to take a few of his velocity away. He has a $20 million participant choice that vested as a result of he reached 300 innings over 2023-24, however he can in all probability get at the least that AAV over two or three years out there.

20. Christian Walker, 1B

Walker didn’t get to play full-time till he left Baltimore and took over at first base for Arizona in his age-28 season, and since then he’s been a 3-4 fWAR participant each time he’s performed sufficient to qualify for the batting title, coming in at 3.0 fWAR final yr (and a pair of.6 by bWAR). He got here into his energy slightly later than most hitters, however he’s held it, with very sturdy batted-ball information final yr highlighted by a 13.3 % Barrel charge, though he’s beginning to present some small indicators of age, particularly in opposition to good velocity.

Walker stays a superb defensive first baseman and has sufficient endurance and energy to be an everyday there for a contender, though I’d be cautious of going greater than two years given his age and the excessive bar for offense at his one place. We’ll see if Mister Christian can hold motoring alongside into his mid-30s.

O’Hearn has all the time hit the ball arduous, nevertheless it got here with a whole lot of strikeouts — as many as 158 in one in every of his minor-league seasons — and consequently he didn’t get semi-regular enjoying time till Baltimore bought his contract from the Royals earlier than the 2023 season. Not solely did he get essentially the most enjoying time of his profession (494 PA) in Baltimore, he improbably turned a contact hitter, going from a 22 % Okay-rate in 2023 to 14 % this most up-to-date yr. The Orioles helped him together with his mechanics in 2023, together with protecting his hips extra on-line throughout his swing, and this yr helped him change his swing choices. For instance, in full counts, he swung 68 % of the time in 2024, down from 88 % the yr earlier than. He is likely to be a hidden gem within the class, as he’s only a utterly completely different hitter than he was earlier than, and he’s by no means even gotten 500 PA to show it.

22. Gleyber Torres, 2B

Torres was one of many prime prospects within the recreation earlier than his MLB debut, and got here out sturdy in his first two seasons, together with what stays his offensive peak yr in 2019, however he hasn’t been capable of match that in any of the 4 post-pandemic seasons since. He’ll flip 28 in December, so he’s actually younger for a free agent and will have loads of years of peak manufacturing left, however he simply can’t activate a fastball any extra.

He’s misplaced some bat pace, definitely, and it reveals in opposition to four-seamers — 63 % of the time he put that pitch in play, it was to the precise aspect of the sector, and he hit 4 instances as lots of these fastballs to proper area as he did to left. His .257/.330/.378 line with below-average protection was solely value 1.7-1.8 WAR in 2024, making him a below-average common. Perhaps some staff can get him to drag the ball once more and get again to some energy — if it could possibly assist stem the drop in his bat pace, too.

Suárez had a superficial bounceback yr heading into free company, however a big a part of it was Arizona’s hitter-friendly residence park, and a number of the relaxation was in all probability fluky. He hit simply .239/.308/.422 on the highway, with rather more energy at residence. He additionally noticed an influence spike regardless of a drop in his Barrel charge and a few of his different batted-ball information; all of that mixed together with his age, 34 in 2025, would appear to make him a candidate for some regression in his output. He’s nonetheless an above-average defender at third base and might be a stable common even accounting for a drop-off in his offense, though I wouldn’t wish to transcend two years with him given the warning indicators.

24. Luis Severino, RHP

Severino’s comeback season was his first time qualifying for the ERA title since 2018, which was many accidents in the past, together with a Tommy John surgical procedure. He’s solely down about 1.5 mph from his peak, which is wonderful given how a lot time has handed and what number of arm troubles he’s had, and the Mets had him add a sinker to counteract a number of the declining life on the four-seamer.

He nonetheless has points with left-handed batters, permitting 16 homers to them (versus seven to righties), and his slider, as soon as his finest pitch, has misplaced a whole lot of its chew — it has the identical velocity however doesn’t have anyplace close to the identical break in both dimension because it as soon as did. I’m extra nervous about his sturdiness — given his historical past and a supply that also doesn’t use his decrease half very nicely — than his stuff, though I can see considerations there as nicely.

25. Jeff Hoffman, RHP

The Twins had Hoffman in camp in March 2023, however launched him on the finish of March, three days after which the Phillies picked him up on a minor-league deal. He altered the grip on his slider, and the Phillies had him throw it much more typically, and he’s responded with the 2 finest years of his profession, throwing 118 2/3 innings with 158 strikeouts, 33 unintentional walks, and a 2.28 ERA/2.54 FIP, and three.9 bWAR/3.5 fWAR.

He has a modest platoon break up however is greater than ok to remain in in opposition to most lefties, and he has a number of weapons to overlook bats with the slider and splitter. I feel he’s the perfect quick reliever accessible in free company, and people guys have been getting three years and $30-35 million the previous few winters.

26. Nick Pivetta, RHP

Pivetta is a reliable fifth starter who could be a constant five-and-dive man, however who actually shouldn’t face the order a 3rd time. He’s allowed hitters to slug .505 in opposition to him the third time round in his profession, .511 in 2024. He’s uncommon for a starter in that he works largely fastball-sweeper-curve, and not using a changeup or a break up (which he used slightly in 2022 however in no way in 2024) for lefties. Regardless of that he actually hasn’t proven any platoon break up as a starter over his profession. He spent a month on the IL final yr with a proper elbow flexor pressure, his first IL stint since lacking a week-plus in September 2021. 5 inning starters are all the trend now, so he ought to discover loads of suitors at the same time as a man who’s in all probability going to max out at 2 WAR.

27. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

Goldschmidt’s manufacturing collapsed in 2024, as he has misplaced bat pace and it crushed him throughout the board, with profession worsts in stroll charge, strikeout charge and all three triple-slash stats. He nonetheless hits the ball arduous, however he hits it much less typically, and extra of it’s on the bottom. He’s been whiffing extra on good fastballs every of the final two years, which frequently comes with age and its attendant lack of bat pace. He might need yet one more rebound season, however there’s a greater likelihood that he’s performed as an everyday.

28. Max Kepler, OF

Kepler was practically a 3-win participant in 2023, however two knee accidents restricted him to 399 PA this season and he was by no means fairly proper when he did play, with the bottom common exit velocity, hard-hit charge and stroll charges of his profession, together with near-lows in wOBA and wRC+. He often crushes fastballs, pulling them arduous for many of his home-run energy, however in 2024 he couldn’t activate good velocity in any respect, and if he pulled it in any respect it was to second base. Was it age, damage, or a mix of each?

I’d be keen to guess on some return to his 2021-23 ranges, particularly since he can nonetheless defend and has been satisfactory in opposition to lefties the previous few years, however I wouldn’t financial institution on greater than about 2-2.5 wins of worth in 2025. If I’m Kepler, I’m definitely excited about a one-year deal to attempt to re-establish my worth and going for a four-year deal if I’ve a robust season.

29. Tyler O’Neill, OF

O’Neill demolished left-handed pitching in 2024, hitting .313/.430/.750 in opposition to southpaws, good for the third-best wRC+ versus lefties of any hitter within the majors in 2024, behind solely Choose and Heliot Ramos (!). These numbers have been regardless of a strikeout charge of 31 % for O’Neill even with the platoon benefit. His line in opposition to righties was a special story, .209/.290/.403 with a 35 % strikeout charge.

He’s a below-average defender in both nook however has sufficient arm to play proper. His excellent position is a platoon nook outfielder who might come off the bench as a pinch hitter in opposition to a lefty reliever, however I anticipate somebody to pay him and play him as an everyday even with the huge platoon break up.

30. Andrew Heaney, LHP

Heaney’s ERA wasn’t something particular this previous yr at 4.28, however he threw 160 innings, the second-highest mark of his profession, and his peripherals have been actually sturdy, producing a 2.2 fWAR determine that can be his second-best. He used his four-seamer lower than in the last few years, a optimistic shift because the pitch is pretty flat regardless of a whole lot of arm-side run, though right-handers nonetheless produce an excessive amount of energy in opposition to him, hitting 20 of the 23 homers he allowed final yr. A few of that is from his cross-body supply, and a few is from pitch choice, as 75 % of the pitches he throws to righties are four-seamers or sliders.

He gave the Rangers 307 innings and 59 begins over two years, by far essentially the most he’s pitched in any two-year stretch, and is a stable fourth-starter candidate for many groups as is, however I ponder if simply tweaking the pitch choice in opposition to right-handed batters might make him slightly higher.

31. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP

Sugano has an arsenal of largely common or fringe-average pitches, together with his splitter possibly a 55, however he has unbelievable command and management that assist every little thing play up. In the event you have been ever going to guess on a pitcher to pitch above his pure stuff, that is the man. He doesn’t miss sufficient bats to be greater than a fifth starter or so, however he avoids walks — 2.6 % this previous yr in NPB, 4.8 % the yr earlier than — and hits his spots sufficient to restrict arduous contact. No less than, that’s the way it’s labored in Japan, however MLB lineups are quite a bit deeper, and there’s definitely an opportunity his fringy stuff catches as much as him in opposition to higher-caliber hitters.

32. Shane Bieber, RHP

Bieber underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in April 2024, which can in all probability hold him out for a part of the 2025 season however not all of it, barring a setback in his rehab. In 2022, he was one of many top-10 pitchers in baseball, racking up 4.8 fWAR throughout 200 innings, however his elbow began to trouble him in 2023 and he each missed time and misplaced effectiveness on his breaking stuff as a consequence.

He’s been good when wholesome and has labored with excellent command and the flexibility to generate groundballs, so there ought to nonetheless be a ton of curiosity in him, in all probability for two-year offers that focus extra on the worth he’ll present in 2026 when, presumably, his command is healthier as he’s farther from the surgical procedure. One factor to remember is that some pitchers come again from TJ with out the identical breaking stuff, and Bieber does rely fairly a bit on his slider and knuckle-curve.

33. José Quintana, LHP

Quintana, essentially the most profitable Colombian-born pitcher in MLB historical past, gave the Mets 170 innings of league average-ish pitching this season — higher than that by ERA, worse by FIP, as his BABIP of .263 was fairly fluky. He’s missed giant components of two of the final 4 seasons, and within the different two he’s taken the ball each fifth day and soaked up some innings, though at 36 he’s misplaced slightly velocity and that’s more likely to proceed. He ought to get one-year offers from right here on out, in all probability within the $8-10 million vary for now to steadiness out the innings upside with the damage threat, though he’s in all probability a 1-1.5 WAR pitcher if he pitches a full season.

34. Walker Buehler, RHP

Buehler’s first yr again from his second Tommy John surgical procedure didn’t go as deliberate, as he posted a 5.38 ERA/5.54 FIP in 75 1/3 innings, permitting 16 homers and 89 hits. He had the bottom velocity of his major-league profession, averaging 95 mph on his four-seamer, down barely from 2021-22 and approach down from its 2018-20 ranges, with comparable drops on his different pitches as nicely. His command was approach off, with a whole lot of middle-middle fastballs and a whole lot of curveballs that stayed up (even with extra vertical break on the pitch than he had earlier than 2024).

Buehler did miss two months with proper hip irritation, so it’s fairly potential that contributed to a few of his struggles, however regardless I’m inclined to assume one other yr away from the surgical procedure will at the least see him get his command again. His 2024 stuff would nonetheless be sufficient to make him an above-average starter if he locates it. If I have been the Dodgers, I’d make him the qualifying provide, as a result of a wholesome Walker Buehler goes to generate greater than $21 million in worth — and in the event that they don’t, another person ought to provide him that deal.

Kelly reaches major-league free company for the primary time as he enters his age 37 season, off a yr when he was damage however completed wholesome and made 13 begins. He’d been value 3.2 fWAR in every of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, throwing 377 1/3 innings over these two years, then missed 4 months in 2024 with proper shoulder irritation. The excellent news is that his common fastball velocity was solely down 0.3 mph from 2023, and his changeup was nonetheless plus, so you may nonetheless mission him as a 2-3 win pitcher should you assume he could make 25+ begins this season. A youthful pitcher would in all probability need a one-year make-good deal to attempt once more subsequent winter. This might be Kelly’s one massive likelihood in free company, and he could also be extra concerned about getting each greenback he can this time round, even when it means leaving some upside on the desk.

Miscast as a starter for many of his eight years within the majors, Weaver signed a minor-league take care of the Yankees in January and ended up their nearer in September. He by no means had a median breaking ball, not even in faculty, and his changeup was above-average however not ok to make him Michael Wacha. The Yankees had him alter the grip on his changeup to provide it extra tumble, and together with the cutter he added in 2023, he now has sufficient of a mixture of weapons to get hitters on each side out — and is lacking far more bats than ever, going from a profession whiff charge slightly below 25 % earlier than 2024 to a 33.5 % charge this yr. Somebody would possibly attempt to begin him once more, however I’d let him stick in a reduction position, maybe simply letting him be extra of a two-inning man than a straight ninth-inning-or-bust selection. The Yankees maintain a membership choice for Weaver.

During the last three seasons, Pederson has hit .267/.365/.502 in opposition to right-handed pitching, enjoying nearly solely in opposition to them, and within the uncommon instances he’s been allowed to face a lefty, he’s walked 15 % of the time, a giant enchancment from how he fared earlier in his profession. He’s nonetheless a platoon participant, only one who doesn’t require you to interrupt the glass to deploy the emergency right-handed caddy each single time the opposing staff trots out a southpaw. He didn’t play the sector in any respect for Arizona in 2024, however he’s a forty five defender in a nook. If both aspect declines his mutual choice, he ought to be capable to get an analogous deal out there, one other yr and $12.5 million, possibly a shade extra given the sustained efficiency.

38. Carlos Santana, 1B

Santana simply retains chugging alongside, throwing up a 3.0 fWAR/2.6 rWAR season at age 38, largely by crushing left-handed pitching (.286/.356/.578) and enjoying nice protection at first base. Enjoyable truth: Santana led all free agent place gamers in OAA this yr, per Statcast, at +11, one forward of Harrison Bader and Christian Walker. He’s not nice in opposition to righties however does take his walks in opposition to them, with a .219/.318/.358 line that makes him below-average however playable due to the on-base proportion. His age makes him a one-year deal man, however he gave the Twins far more worth than his base wage of $5.25 million coated.

39. Kirby Yates, RHP

Yates simply had his second-best season at age 36, posting a 1.17 ERA/2.50 FIP in 61 2/3 innings. He introduced his stroll charge below 10 % for the primary time since 2019, and for the second yr in a row had a particularly low BABIP, which is an element luck but additionally partly a operate of how arduous he’s to sq. up. He’s held his stuff extraordinarily nicely into his 30s, dropping solely 0.7 mph from his peak (2017) till now, and the splitter continues to be plus, sufficient to make his four-seamer an actual swing-and-miss pitch, too. The one actual threat issue I see is his age, however for one yr he’d be an important late-game reduction choice for any membership.

40. Clay Holmes, RHP

There’s a photograph of Holmes within the dictionary below the entry “sinker/slider man.” He had a 65 % groundball charge final yr because of a turbo sinker at 95 mph, and he misses a ton of bats together with his slider, including a sweeper extra to the combo this yr for a special look. If he walked fewer guys, he’d be an elite, 2-WAR or so reliever for any form of high-leverage work, however with a stroll charge round 8 %, he’s only a tier under that.

41. Tanner Scott, LHP

Scott is the highest left-handed reliever out there, with a fastball that touches 100 mph, a slider within the higher 80s and a historical past of lacking each bats and the strike zone. He additionally tends to restrict arduous contact, which considerably mitigates the dearth of management, though his .247 BABIP allowed in 2024 was his lowest in a full season and doubtless overstates his worth going ahead. He’s a positive late-game reliever if he throws sufficient strikes. I see a man who’s walked at the least 11 % of batters confronted in yearly of his profession however one, and I’m unsure I’d wish to go a number of years, though somebody definitely will.

42. Carlos Estévez, RHP

Estévez hits free company off his finest yr, as he had a career-low unintentional stroll charge of simply 3.8 %, down from 9.4 % the yr earlier than and eight.5 % for his profession heading into 2024. He sits within the excessive 90s with a brief slider that hitters have a whole lot of bother with, not often utilizing a changeup, however he doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d anticipate from the stuff, and he offers up extra arduous contact than you’d anticipate as nicely. When he’s throwing strikes like he did final yr, he’s an excellent quick reliever, however not a man for the highest-leverage spots. I’d give him two years and $10 million or so per, however I think somebody will give him three years and make him a better once more.

43. Alex Verdugo, OF

Verdugo had possibly his worst yr on the plate regardless of enjoying in a ballpark that favors left-handed batters, hitting simply .235/.282/.388 in opposition to right-handed pitching, making him barely higher than a replacement-level participant. He in all probability ought to have misplaced his job to Jasson Domínguez, however that’s not materials to his free-agent case; he’s a stable platoon man for the nook outfield, hitting .279/.329/.464 off righties only a yr prior and .280/.334/.447 for his profession. There was an entire kerfuffle this summer season when it emerged that he has been coping with contact dermatitis, in all probability from his batting gloves, for 3 years, however he didn’t hit any higher after that and it looks like a pink herring. He’s a 50/55 defender with a plus arm, with sufficient thump in opposition to right-handed pitching to be the sturdy aspect of a 2-WAR platoon.

D’Arnaud is a satisfactory starter for a second-division staff at this level, with below-average on-base abilities and above-average energy that make him a stable bat on the place but not sufficient to deal with DH. He’s a median defensive catcher with a fringy arm, catching fewer than 20 % of would-be base-stealers in three of the final 4 seasons. He’ll be 36 subsequent yr, and is coming off the very best whiff charge (32.8 %) and highest strikeout charge (26 %) of his profession, with a regarding quantity of his manufacturing coming off changeups — as in, slower pitches. He is likely to be approaching the cliff, and contending groups ought to purpose larger in the event that they want a starter.

Moncada missed practically all of 2024 with a proper adductor pressure, enjoying solely 12 video games, 11 of them earlier than he hit the IL, however even earlier than this season, he appeared to already be previous his peak. In 2019-21, he hit .279/.363/.464 in 328 video games, with a ten.8 % stroll charge. In 2022-23, he dropped to .234/.288/.386 with a 6.5 % stroll charge. He’s a fringy defender at third who was terrible at second when he performed it in 2017-18, so it’s the new nook or the outfield. Perhaps he will get utterly wholesome and regains a number of the energy and phone high quality he had at his peak; I feel it’s extra seemingly that that model of the participant isn’t coming again.

46. Hyeseong Kim, 2B

Kim hit .326/.383/.458 final yr for Kiwoom within the KBO, and .321/.381/.418 over the past 4 seasons, together with his slugging proportion growing every year. He’s nonetheless a hit-over-power man, hanging out simply 11 % of the time this previous yr however with an enormous groundball charge of 60 %. He would possibly be capable to add some energy, however to be greater than an additional man he has to begin elevating the ball much more. His former Kiwoom teammate Ha-Seong Kim did make some massive changes after he came to visit to MLB, however he began from the next baseline, hitting 30 homers in his final yr in KBO. Hyeseong Kim, nevertheless, in all probability wants a swing adjustment and extra energy to be an on a regular basis second baseman in MLB.

47. Jose Iglesias, SS

Iglesias had the half-season of his life, and stored rolling sufficient within the postseason that I feel somebody will attempt to signal him to play every single day, though now we have over 4,000 PA right here to inform us that he’s not near that form of hitter. His batted-ball information agrees; his exit velocity metrics are all on the low finish, and his anticipated batting common was 50 factors under his precise one, which tells us one thing when projecting ahead. He’s now not the plus defender at quick he was once, however he’s at the least common there and might deal with second or third, as nicely. Along with his contact abilities, he’s a perfect utility man, but when somebody tries to provide him an on a regular basis gig they’ll in all probability be on the lookout for a substitute by midyear.

Gibson is the exemplar of the trendy innings-eater. He’s made at the least 25 begins in 10 straight years (excluding 2020) and certified for the ERA title eight instances in his 11 seasons, lacking a ninth by two innings. He was proper round league-average in 2024, however below-average in 2022 and 2023, as he simply doesn’t miss sufficient bats. He mixes in six pitches, none of them higher than a 55, with the sweeper and curveball to generate some whiffs and a sinker to provide him a barely above-average groundball charge. It’s unexciting, positive, but there’s a whole lot of worth in taking the ball each fifth day, even when it’s simply to go 5-6 innings.

49. Paul Sewald, RHP

Sewald missed April with an indirect pressure, then acquired off to an important begin to 2024, permitting one run in his first look and none in his subsequent 17 video games. However from July 1 on he had a 7.04 ERA/4.60 FIP, with a .385 BABIP allowed and 7 homers allowed in three innings, earlier than his season ended with a neck damage in early September.

He’s been a four-seamer/slider man endlessly, switching to a sweeper-style slider round 2020, however his four-seamer acquired hit arduous within the second half, as he misplaced about an inch of motion on the pitch. He gave up seven doubles and 4 homers simply on the four-seamer within the 23 innings he threw from July 1 onward. That’s nothing just like the Sewald we noticed from 2021-23 and thru the tip of June final yr. He doesn’t depend on velocity, however on command and the sweeper, so he ought to maintain his worth longer into his 30s than most.

50. Carson Kelly, C

Kelly has bounced across the final two years, from Arizona to Detroit to Texas, however as a robust defensive catcher who has some contact abilities, he might play one other six to eight years as a backup. He’s an important athlete and sensible participant, neither of which has translated into sturdy on-base abilities or arduous sufficient contact to make him an everyday. If he got here into any energy, he might in all probability find yourself a second-division common once more.

(Picture illustration by Meech Robinson / The Athletic / (from left to proper) Corbin Burnes, Juan Soto, Willy Adames: Julio Aguilar / Getty Photos; Patrick Smith / Getty Photos; Stacy Revere / Getty Photos)